What is the chance of loosing?

With back-testing you can get some idea what is the probability of a winning trade versus a loosing one.

Loosing trades, especially, happening in a row eat up the money of the trader. This is why people need money management.

However, counting the probability of loosing trades is very easy. It is 50%.

Price moves up or down. 50-50% chance of loosing or winning no matter if it is short trade or a long trade.

I am not sure that even with backtesting you get a better answer than 50-50. Why? It is called backtesting drawdown. Backtested strategies tend to get weaker as time goes forward.

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